高级检索+
杨芙蓉, 张琴, 孙成忠, 谢彩香, 宋经元. 蒙古黄芪潜在分布区预测的多模型比较[J]. 植物科学学报, 2019, 37(2): 136-143. DOI: 10.11913/PSJ.2095-0837.2019.20136
引用本文: 杨芙蓉, 张琴, 孙成忠, 谢彩香, 宋经元. 蒙古黄芪潜在分布区预测的多模型比较[J]. 植物科学学报, 2019, 37(2): 136-143. DOI: 10.11913/PSJ.2095-0837.2019.20136
Yang Fu-Rong, Zhang Qin, Sun Cheng-Zhong, Xie Cai-Xiang, Song Jing-Yuan. Comparative evaluation of multiple models for predicting the potential distribution areas of Astragalus membranaceus var. mongholicus[J]. Plant Science Journal, 2019, 37(2): 136-143. DOI: 10.11913/PSJ.2095-0837.2019.20136
Citation: Yang Fu-Rong, Zhang Qin, Sun Cheng-Zhong, Xie Cai-Xiang, Song Jing-Yuan. Comparative evaluation of multiple models for predicting the potential distribution areas of Astragalus membranaceus var. mongholicus[J]. Plant Science Journal, 2019, 37(2): 136-143. DOI: 10.11913/PSJ.2095-0837.2019.20136

蒙古黄芪潜在分布区预测的多模型比较

Comparative evaluation of multiple models for predicting the potential distribution areas of Astragalus membranaceus var. mongholicus

  • 摘要: 根据蒙古黄芪(Astragalus membranaceus(Fisch.)Bge.var.mongholicus(Bge.)Hsiao)123个样本点数据和19个环境数据,采用4种生态位模型对蒙古黄芪在中国的潜在适生区进行综合分析,并采用受试者工作特征曲线ROC和Kappa统计量,比较不同模型的预测效果。结果显示:4个模型预测精度良好,一致性显著。AUC值均达到0.8以上,Kappa值均达到0.6以上;其中DOMAIN模型的AUC值和Kappa值均最大,说明该模型的预测精度最佳,预测结果最稳定。潜在适生区的预测结果发现,GARP模型预测的最适宜区范围最广;MAXENT和BIOCLIM模型预测结果较为相似;DOMAIN模型预测结果比较分散。4个模型预测结果均表明西北一带可以作为蒙古黄芪栽培引种的主要产区。蒙古黄芪潜在适生区主要分布于中国北纬33°以北地区;最适宜区主要分布于甘肃、宁夏、陕西、山西、河北和内蒙古等地区。

     

    Abstract: Based on 123 distribution points of Astragalus membranaceus (Fisch.) Bge. var. mongholicus (Bge.) Hsiao and 19 ecological variables, four ecological niche models (i.e., BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, GARP, and MAXENT) were used to predict the potential distribution areas of Astragalus membranaceus, with the different models then judged and compared using areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and Kappa values. Results showed that the four models had good prediction accuracy and consistency, with AUC values above 0.8 and Kappa values above 0.6. The DOMAIN model demonstrated the highest AUC and Kappa values, indicating that the prediction accuracy and results of this model were optimal and stable. The predicted suitable area range of the GARP model was the widest, with the MAXENT and BIOCLIM models showing similar prediction ranges and DOMAIN demonstrating relatively dispersed prediction regions. The four models showed that the northwest regions could be used as major production areas for A. membranaceus var. mongholicus cultivation. The prediction results indicated that the potential distribution areas for A. membranaceus var. mongholicus were mainly located in north of 33°N, and included Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Hebei, and the border area of northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia. In addition, small potentially suitable areas were also located in Xinjiang, Tibet, Qinghai, and Sichuan. However, the most suitable areas were distributed in Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

     

/

返回文章
返回